Economic freedom and bilateral direct investment

Economic freedom (freedom from the intervention of government) is essential for doing business, so economic freedom of both the home country and the host country are important for bilateral foreign direct investment. However, though some literature has investigated the role of host country's economic freedom in bilateral direct investment, no literature has studied the role of home country's economic freedom. This paper has studied this issue in a gravity model with a sample of 155 countries. This paper has also employed some effective estimation techniques of gravity model to incorporate the zero observations and adopted quantile regression method. The findings indicate that economic freedom of both the home country and the host country are positively correlated with bilateral direct investment, and the economic freedom of home country has even stronger explanatory power for foreign direct investment. Hence, promoting the economic freedom may encourage more outward foreign direct investment than inward direct investment.     

Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tweets frequently to communicate his thoughts to the public. We quantitatively evaluate the impact of Trump's China-related tweets on the Chinese stock market. We find that following Trump’s inauguration, his tweets with a positive sentiment significantly increase abnormal returns for the manufacturing industry in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, an increase in the absolute value of his positive sentiment increases both the trading volume and volatility of the market. The positive effect is more pronounced for those subindustries with high exposure to international trade and stronger business relations with the United States than for other subindustries. The results are robust for various sensitivity tests.     

贵州的脱贫和发展：基于三因子耦合的解析

贵州的脱贫和发展案例表明，欠发达地区的脱贫和发展是集合“核心设施、骨干领域、环境机遇”三大因子共同发力的结果。这一发现挑战了当代主流发展理论，并在落后国家或区域具有广泛复制的价值。这种新发展观不只是一种自洽且连贯的学说，还可作为引导明智行动的机制对待，因而深具实践意义。可以把这三个强关联性词汇转换为规范且符合逻辑的陈述以激发洞见，充实当代发展理论，同时为其他不发达地区的贫困治理和经济发展提供经验和借鉴。     

Can stable environmental protection officials’ tenure reduce illegal emissions?

Based on the day-night PM_2.5 difference of the nearest atmospheric monitoring points to measure whether there is illegal emission, this paper explores the impact of environmental protection officials' tenure (EPLT) on illegal emissions. The results show that there is a positive correlation between EPLT and illegal emissions. Stable EPLT can reduce illegal emissions by increasing environmental information disclosure and environmental subsidies. It can increase illegal emissions by weakening public pollution reporting and media supervision, environmental law enforcement and promoting corruption. In addition, EPLT can increase illegal emissions as EPLT is less than 3.55 years, while EPLT can increase illegal emissions as EPLT exceeds 6.21 years. Further, when mayor's tenure and EPLT are both stable, the promotion effect of EPLT on illegal emission is stronger. Stable company director's tenure can also aggravate the promotion effect of EPLT on illegal emissions.     

提振消费要关注政策偏好的社会结构效应

新冠肺炎疫情爆发之后,人们非常关注通过提振消费来防止经济出现大幅度下滑。事实上,提振消费政策同时也具有社会政策属性。调查表明,在双循环背景下,通过社会政策维持一定的生计方式,并保持人们的消费水平具有重要意义。从对企业家FR、小手工业者BF与房屋中介LC的访谈资料以及在麓村、唐村的调查情况来看,人们在理解提振消费政策时具有共同的叙事特征。叙事本身具有鲜明的政策偏好,其核心是一定空间背景下结构与利益的分配正义问题。而风险社会与低欲望社会特征的并存深刻地影响着提振消费政策的制定,是行动者要面对的情境。为此,需要从规则与制度、空间与代际等长期性和持续性的角度系统思考提振消费政策的受益对象与受益群体,防止政策偏好所带来的结构性挑战。     

资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.     

External regulation,independent director attendance,and governance effects

In this study we examine how the regulation of director attendance disciplines directors’ behavior, and consider the governance effect of such regulations. This examination exploits the differences between the requirements for director attendance at board meetings enacted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE) and by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). Using a difference-in-differences model with a sample of A-share listed firms from 2006 to 2017, we document that the rate of meeting attendance by independent directors who serve with firms listed on the SHSE (SHIDs) has increased significantly since the exchange’s enforcement of the regulation on attendance. This positive effect has been more pronounced for independent directors with legal backgrounds. Further investigations find that the regulation of attendance plays a corporate governance role through the mechanism of enhanced monitoring. The attendance regulation increases the SHIDs likelihood of casting dissenting votes, and it leads to both better accounting performance and higher firm value. In addition, SHIDs are more likely to depart from firms listed on the SHSE, and to transfer their directorships to firms listed on the SZSE, which has a less constraining attendance requirement. Our findings provide evidence of how external regulation shapes director attendance and voting behavior in emerging markets.     

移动网络数据中大数据处理的关键技术探索

最近几年以来,我国科技水平持续提升,计算机网络技术也逐渐在各行各业中获得了广泛运用,这也使得信息技术的深度融合发展受到一定的促进,数据规模愈发庞大,在此背景下,开始演变成大数据供不应求的状况。为此,国内陆续推出了一系列相关的管理法规与条例,同时扩大了对大数据的探究创新力度,有效提升了移动通信网络处理数据的速度,这同时促使国内移动通信网络中有关大数据的研究内容更为明晰,由此可知,针对大数据的相关研究具有一定必要性。     

河北省产业承接的技术溢出效应研究

京津冀协同发展战略上升为国家战略,河北加快承接京津产业转移的步伐,对河北经济转型升级和科技创新能力提升具有重要意义。以河北省为研究对象,基于2005-2016年的数据,使用DEA的曼奎斯特指数方法测算出河北省十二年的技术进步变化情况,并以此为核心变量建立技术溢出模型实证检验了产业承接的技术溢出效应。研究结果发现,河北存在承接区际产业的技术溢出效应,但FDI的技术溢出效应并不显著;R&D经费投入对河北技术进步的促进作用最为明显,而人力资本投入对技术进步的拉升作用较小。